The record · NFL
NFL picks: every call, graded. Misses included.
Every NFL pick CacheOut locked before the game, checked against the final score: the win-loss record, each call's price and every miss.
- 33 of 49
- cash-out alerts came in
- 71–44
- NFL regular-season picks · 61.7%
- Brier 0.234
- coin flip = 0.250, lower is better
Preseason calls are counted separately, and thinly priced ones are broken out on their own. Why →
Cash-out alerts
An alert isn't a prediction that the pick will win. It says the pick is well ahead of where we called it, with time still on the clock. "Came in" means the pick went on to win.
Nov 1 · Q3 10:42
RAMS 88%
Called 65% · up 8 on the Chargers
Still playing
Nov 1 · Q3 3:30
LIONS 82%
Called 67% · up 5 on the Vikings
✓ Came in · Final Lions 19–15
Nov 1 · Q3 8:37
BENGALS 88%
Called 72% · up 8 on the Titans
✓ Came in · Final Bengals 43–36
Nov 1 · Q2 5:11
COWBOYS 97%
Called 80% · up 14 on the Cardinals
✕ Didn't come in · Final Cardinals 33–30
Nov 1 · Q2 10:56
JETS 72%
Called 52% · up 6 on the Raiders
✕ Didn't come in · Final Raiders 38–33
Nov 1 · Q1 4:02
BUCCANEERS 81%
Called 66% · up 6 on the Falcons
✓ Came in · Final Buccaneers 16–0
| Stated chance | Picks | W–L | Came in | Stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 49 | 27–22 | 55.1% | 55.4% |
| 60–70% | 36 | 23–13 | 63.9% | 64.3% |
| 70% or better | 30 | 21–9 | 70.0% | 76.3% |
| Locked | Picks | W–L | Came in | Stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| More than 3 days | 115 | 71–44 | 61.7% | 63.6% |
Preseason is left out, as from the headline record. A band with fewer than 20 graded picks is marked: its hit rate can swing a long way on a few games.
Every pick
Each one shows when it was locked and how it settled. Flat 10-unit stakes, at fair odds and at a typical sportsbook price, so you can see the difference the sportsbook's cut makes.
| Game | Our pick | Win chance | Kickoff | Final | P/L (units) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 66% | Nov 1, 1:00 PMlocked Aug 31 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16–0 | +5.12+4.46 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers | 69% | Nov 1, 1:00 PMlocked Aug 31 | Pittsburgh Steelers 27–6 | +4.54+3.91 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions | 67% | Nov 1, 1:00 PMlocked Aug 31 | Detroit Lions 19–15 | +4.92+4.28 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills | 56% | Nov 1, 1:00 PMlocked Aug 31 | Buffalo Bills 36–10 | +7.72+6.96 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars | 65% | Nov 1, 1:00 PMlocked Aug 31 | Jacksonville Jaguars 42–7 | +5.35+4.69 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets | New York Jets | 52% | Nov 1, 1:00 PMlocked Aug 31 | Las Vegas Raiders 38–33 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals | Cincinnati Bengals | 72% | Nov 1, 1:00 PMlocked Aug 31 | Cincinnati Bengals 43–36 | +3.82+3.22 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys | 80% | Nov 1, 1:00 PMlocked Aug 31 | Arizona Cardinals 33–30 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 75% | Oct 29, 8:15 PMlocked Aug 31 | Green Bay Packers 27–19 | +3.38+2.80 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles | Philadelphia Eagles | 60% | Oct 26, 8:15 PMlocked Aug 31 | Dallas Cowboys 38–21 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
At fair odds, betting every pick would roughly break even over time, so any profit there is luck, not skill. The second line takes a typical sportsbook's 4.5% cut, which is closer to what a real bettor gets. These are units, not dollars. Nobody placed these bets.