The record · NFL

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys: our pick

We called the Dallas Cowboys at 80%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 61 days before kickoff.

Final: Arizona Cardinals 33–30 Dallas Cowboys. Wrong.

Why this pick?

Our 80% is the betting market's own price for the Dallas Cowboys: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.

Since we locked it the market moved 5.4 points away from the Dallas Cowboys.

Our last 9 graded calls on the Dallas Cowboys: 3 right.

At 80%, a pick like this still loses about 20 times in 100.

What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.

Reading a pick: What does a 70% chance to win mean? Reading win probabilities · How to tell whether a sports picks record is real

Cash-out alert sent Nov 1, 2:08 PM ET at Q2 5:11: Dallas Cowboys 97% to win, called at 80%.

That was the moment to check the cash-out offer at your own sportsbook. Whether to take it was yours to decide; we never hold bets or money.

Dallas Cowboys win chance, call to final
50%

Call 80% Alert 97% at Q2 5:11Last live read 51% (Q4 0:06)

More on these teams

Dallas Cowboys

Arizona Cardinals

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Entry #255 in the chain, backfilled when fingerprinting began. Check this call yourself →

Not betting advice. 21+ where permitted. Every call, graded →