The record · Soccer
Soccer picks: every call, graded. Misses included.
Every Soccer pick CacheOut locked before the game, checked against the final score: the win-loss record, each call's price and every miss.
- 259
- Soccer picks graded
- 151–108
- Soccer picks · 58.3%
- Brier 0.233
- coin flip = 0.250, lower is better
Each call is the DraftKings line with the margin removed, written down before kick-off. The record starts on the day the board went live — nothing before it was filled in afterwards.
| Stated chance | Picks | W–L | Came in | Stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 50% | 135 | 67–68 | 49.6% | 42.8% |
| 50–60% | 58 | 36–22 | 62.1% | 55.0% |
| 60–70% | 34 | 23–11 | 67.6% | 64.8% |
| 70% or better | 32 | 25–7 | 78.1% | 76.4% |
| Locked | Picks | W–L | Came in | Stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 hours | 141 | 79–62 | 56.0% | 52.9% |
| 6 to 24 hours | 1small sample | 1–0 | 100.0% | 62.0% |
| More than 3 days | 117 | 71–46 | 60.7% | 52.1% |
Preseason is left out, as from the headline record. A band with fewer than 20 graded picks is marked: its hit rate can swing a long way on a few games.
Every pick
Each one shows when it was locked and how it settled. Flat 10-unit stakes, at fair odds and at a typical sportsbook price, so you can see the difference the sportsbook's cut makes.
| Game | Our pick | Win chance | Kickoff | Final | P/L (units) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC @ Atlanta United FC | Atlanta United FC | 45% | Nov 1, 4:30 PMlocked Nov 1 | Atlanta United FC 3–1 | +12.36+11.40 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Seattle Sounders FC @ Vancouver Whitecaps | Vancouver Whitecaps | 56% | Nov 1, 3:30 PMlocked Nov 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps 5–1 | +7.90+7.13 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Real Sociedad @ Athletic Club | Athletic Club | 48% | Nov 1, 3:00 PMlocked Nov 1 | Athletic Club 2–1 | +10.66+9.77 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Toulouse @ Marseille | Marseille | 51% | Nov 1, 2:45 PMlocked Nov 1 | Marseille 2–0 | +9.68+8.83 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Napoli @ Juventus | Juventus | 43% | Nov 1, 2:45 PMlocked Nov 1 | Juventus 2–0 | +13.28+12.27 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Valencia @ Elche | Elche | 41% | Nov 1, 12:30 PMlocked Nov 1 | Valencia 1–0 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Genoa @ Lecce | Genoa | 38% | Nov 1, 12:00 PMlocked Nov 1 | Genoa 2–1 | +16.26+15.13 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Arsenal @ Liverpool | Arsenal | 38% | Nov 1, 11:30 AMlocked Nov 1 | Arsenal 1–0 | +15.98+14.86 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| AS Monaco @ Paris FC | Paris FC | 38% | Nov 1, 11:15 AMlocked Nov 1 | Paris FC 3–1 | +15.99+14.87 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Angers @ Lyon | Lyon | 69% | Nov 1, 11:15 AMlocked Nov 1 | Lyon 2–0 | +4.56+3.93 at a book | ✓ Hit |
At fair odds, betting every pick would roughly break even over time, so any profit there is luck, not skill. The second line takes a typical sportsbook's 4.5% cut, which is closer to what a real bettor gets. These are units, not dollars. Nobody placed these bets.