The record · NBA
NBA picks: every call, graded. Misses included.
Every NBA pick CacheOut locked before the game, checked against the final score: the win-loss record, each call's price and every miss.
- 89
- NBA picks graded
- 61–28
- NBA picks · 68.5%
- Brier 0.191
- coin flip = 0.250, lower is better
Each call is the DraftKings line with the margin removed, written down before tip-off. The record starts on the day the board went live — nothing before it was filled in afterwards.
| Stated chance | Picks | W–L | Came in | Stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 33 | 18–15 | 54.5% | 54.2% |
| 60–70% | 20 | 12–8 | 60.0% | 64.4% |
| 70% or better | 36 | 31–5 | 86.1% | 78.5% |
| Locked | Picks | W–L | Came in | Stated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 hours | 89 | 61–28 | 68.5% | 66.3% |
Preseason is left out, as from the headline record. A band with fewer than 20 graded picks is marked: its hit rate can swing a long way on a few games.
Every pick
Each one shows when it was locked and how it settled. Flat 10-unit stakes, at fair odds and at a typical sportsbook price, so you can see the difference the sportsbook's cut makes.
| Game | Our pick | Win chance | Kickoff | Final | P/L (units) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic | Boston Celtics | 72% | Nov 1, 3:30 PMlocked Nov 1 | Boston Celtics 108–97 | +3.92+3.32 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets | Houston Rockets | 57% | Oct 31, 8:30 PMlocked Oct 31 | Houston Rockets 119–98 | +7.62+6.86 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Cleveland Cavaliers @ Milwaukee Bucks | Cleveland Cavaliers | 78% | Oct 31, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 31 | Cleveland Cavaliers 136–111 | +2.87+2.32 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies | Memphis Grizzlies | 77% | Oct 31, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 31 | Memphis Grizzlies 136–105 | +3.03+2.47 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs | San Antonio Spurs | 84% | Oct 31, 8:00 PMlocked Oct 31 | San Antonio Spurs 121–111 | +1.85+1.34 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Atlanta Hawks @ New Orleans Pelicans | Atlanta Hawks | 63% | Oct 31, 7:00 PMlocked Oct 31 | New Orleans Pelicans 121–99 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
| Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Hornets | Philadelphia 76ers | 50% | Oct 31, 6:00 PMlocked Oct 31 | Philadelphia 76ers 109–104 | +9.82+8.96 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Portland Trail Blazers @ Utah Jazz | Portland Trail Blazers | 74% | Oct 31, 3:00 PMlocked Oct 31 | Portland Trail Blazers 112–90 | +3.51+2.93 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns | Denver Nuggets | 62% | Oct 30, 10:00 PMlocked Oct 30 | Denver Nuggets 127–120 | +6.03+5.34 at a book | ✓ Hit |
| Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors | Los Angeles Lakers | 59% | Oct 30, 10:00 PMlocked Oct 30 | Golden State Warriors 112–95 | −10.00−10.00 at a book | ✕ Miss |
At fair odds, betting every pick would roughly break even over time, so any profit there is luck, not skill. The second line takes a typical sportsbook's 4.5% cut, which is closer to what a real bettor gets. These are units, not dollars. Nobody placed these bets.