The record · NFL

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: our pick

We called the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 61 days before kickoff.

Final: Atlanta Falcons 0–16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Right.

Why this pick?

Our 66% is the betting market's own price for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.

Since we locked it the market moved 11.8 points away from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Our last 9 graded calls on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4 right.

At 66%, a pick like this still loses about 34 times in 100.

What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.

Reading a pick: What does a 70% chance to win mean? Reading win probabilities · How to tell whether a sports picks record is real

Cash-out alert sent Nov 1, 1:38 PM ET at Q1 4:02: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 81% to win, called at 66%.

That was the moment to check the cash-out offer at your own sportsbook. Whether to take it was yours to decide; we never hold bets or money.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers win chance, call to final
50%

Call 66% Alert 81% at Q1 4:02Last live read 99% (Q4 1:56)

More on these teams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Atlanta Falcons

Fingerprint

a6a4e8896a03673d9dc61d0a8c7926a643fb4217525678a729543332ef51b62e

Entry #83 in the chain, backfilled when fingerprinting began. Check this call yourself →

Not betting advice. 21+ where permitted. Every call, graded →