Brentford at Aston Villa: our pick
We called Brentford at 37%, locked Oct 1, 10:06 AM ET, 8 days before kickoff.
Final: Brentford 2–2 Aston Villa. Wrong.
Why this pick?
Our 37% is the betting market's own price for Brentford: the DraftKings line, with its margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 1.2 points toward Brentford.
We have no graded calls on Brentford yet.
At 37%, a pick like this still loses about 63 times in 100.
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No graded calls on Brentford yet. Trends appear once their earlier games are final.
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford win chance | 37% | 38% |
| Total | 2.5 | 2.5 |
- Pick locked: Brentford at 37%.
- Market closed with Brentford at 38%, 1.2 points toward our side.
- Kickoff.
- Final: Brentford 2–2 Aston Villa. Wrong.
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