Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat: our pick
We called the Miami Heat at 72%, locked Oct 26, 5:30 PM ET, 1 hour before kickoff.
Final: Dallas Mavericks 113–109 Miami Heat. Wrong.
Why this pick?
Our 72% is the betting market's own price for the Miami Heat: the DraftKings line, with its margin taken out. It is not a secret model.
Since we locked it the market moved 1.0 points away from the Miami Heat.
Our last 6 graded calls on the Miami Heat: 4 right.
At 72%, a pick like this still loses about 28 times in 100.
What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.
Cash-out alert sent Oct 26, 8:13 PM ET at Q2 10:01: Miami Heat 86% to win, called at 72%.
Call 72% Alert 86% at 10:01 - 2ndLast live read 6% (10.0 - 4th)
- Our calls right
- 60%
- Calls graded
- 3 of 5
- Miami Heat avg margin
- -10.4
Our call right Our call wrongBar height: Miami Heat's final margin
| Since the call | At call | At close |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat win chance | 72% | 71% |
| Miami Heat spread | -7.5 | -7.5 |
| Total | 241.5 | 240.5 |
- Pick locked: the Miami Heat at 72%.
- Market closed with the Miami Heat at 71%, 1.0 points away from our side.
- Kickoff.
- Cash-out alert sent at Q2 10:01: the Miami Heat 86% to win, called at 72%.
- Final: Dallas Mavericks 113–109 Miami Heat. Wrong.
More on these teams
Miami Heat
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