Borussia Dortmund at Bodo/Glimt: our pick

We called Borussia Dortmund at 46%, locked Oct 1, 10:06 AM ET, 13 days before kickoff.

Final: Borussia Dortmund 0–1 Bodo/Glimt. Wrong.

Why this pick?

Our 46% is the betting market's own price for Borussia Dortmund: the DraftKings line, with its margin taken out. It is not a secret model.

Since we locked it the market moved 5.8 points away from Borussia Dortmund.

We have no graded calls on Borussia Dortmund yet.

At 46%, a pick like this still loses about 54 times in 100.

Soccer picks are locked and graded, but not watched live: no cash-out alerts for this sport yet.

Reading a pick: What does a 70% chance to win mean? Reading win probabilities · How to tell whether a sports picks record is real

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Since the call	At call	At close
Borussia Dortmund win chance	46%	40%
Total	3.5	3.5

The market moved 5.8 points away from our side between the call and kickoff. Our pick is the market's own read; this is how that read moved, not a forecast of ours.

More on these teams

Borussia Dortmund

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Entry #445 in the chain, backfilled when fingerprinting began. Check this call yourself →

Not betting advice. 21+ where permitted. Every call, graded →