The record · NFL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys: our pick

We called the Dallas Cowboys at 63%, locked Aug 31, 8:47 PM ET, 37 days before kickoff.

Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24–16 Dallas Cowboys. Wrong.

Why this pick?

Our 63% is the betting market's own price for the Dallas Cowboys: 2 sportsbooks' prices, averaged, with their margin taken out. It is not a secret model.

Since we locked it the market moved 14.9 points toward the Dallas Cowboys.

Our last 6 graded calls on the Dallas Cowboys: 2 right.

At 63%, a pick like this still loses about 37 times in 100.

What we add is timing: we watch this game live and email members when the pick pulls well ahead, so they can check the cash-out at their own sportsbook.

Reading a pick: What does a 70% chance to win mean? Reading win probabilities · How to tell whether a sports picks record is real

Cash-out alert sent Oct 8, 8:29 PM ET at Q1 10:51: Dallas Cowboys 81% to win, called at 63%.

That was the moment to check the cash-out offer at your own sportsbook. Whether to take it was yours to decide; we never hold bets or money.

Dallas Cowboys win chance, call to final
50%

Call 63% Alert 81% at Q1 10:51Last live read 5% (Q4 1:11)

More on these teams

Dallas Cowboys

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fingerprint

0278c3dadd5ca34fdac3c468be39016784de8a4df9b43a20aec27e4d1f783f58

Entry #146 in the chain, backfilled when fingerprinting began. Check this call yourself →

Not betting advice. 21+ where permitted. Every call, graded →